Briefly, Emsi projections are based on past trends carried forward, and published projections from national sources.
To create industry employment projections, Emsi builds three linear regressions using historical employee counts for each geography. The regressions utilize historic data 3, 5, and 10 years into the past. The average of these linear regressions is taken, and the results are damped to curb excessive growth and decline. All trends are then adjusted to national totals (i.e. Provinces are adjusted to the nation, CDs to Provinces, CSDs to CDs). This trend is considered our base projection.
After we create the base projection, we adjust our annual growth rate by industry for Class of Worker 1 (Employees) to the projections produced by COPS. This completes our industry employee count process, creating CSD-level data for 2001-2026.
Occupation data is projected 10 years using the same regression methodology as industry data, then adjusted to COPS growth rates (Class of Worker 1), then adjusted to industry totals (Classes of Worker 1 and 2).
Emsi projections will not match the COPS or any other individual province projections at the most detailed level.