If you use an Emsi product or service, chances are you’ve seen some of our labour market projections. We provide detailed job estimates, by industry and occupation, for each of the next several years from the current year. A common question that we get from clients who see these figures is where do Emsi projections come from? The short answer is that we create our projections based on past trends carried forward, and published projections from province and national sources. If you’re after something a little more detailed, read on.
The first step in both our industry and occupation projections is our robust industry data. We first create simple short-, mid-, and long-term trend lines for every industry and CSD based on the historical data. Those lines are then averaged and damped to prevent extreme change. We then incorporate national industry projections (COPS national employment projections) as well as province and regional projections provided by province labour market organizations to adjust these numbers again. Finally, we take aggregate geography and industry group figures for percentage change and make sure it matches the corresponding published geography and industry numbers.
Emsi projections will not match the COPS or any other individual province projections at the most detailed level.